Swine Flu Cases Likely To Increase Down The Line

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By: Mary Shedden on 2009-07-19
Tbo.com

The deaths of three Bay area men from swine flu Thursday and Friday prompted health officials to warn that the number of cases are on the rise and will only continue to increase.

Summer traditionally is the slowest season for flu, so slow that public health researchers usually stop their influenza surveillance program. But this year the increasing presence of swine flu - including an above-average number of summer cases in Hillsborough County - is keeping it going.

County health departments already are girding for a more severe fall and winter flu season, when hot, humid weather isn’t around to help slow transmission of the illness, said Warren McDougle, Hillsborough County epidemiology program manager.

“If it’s able to be passed this time of year, what will it be like when it starts to cool off and ‘flu season’ begins again,” he said.

World health officials are closely watching the winter flu season taking place south of the equator. In Australia, swine flu numbers are up over last year, according to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That’s a warning for us, McDougle said.

People are being told flu prevention behavior must be taken seriously regardless of the time of year. That includes frequent hand-washing, covering one’s mouth when coughing or sneezing, and staying home when sick. Swine flu symptoms include sore throat, fatigue and a fever of 100 degrees or higher. Health experts suggest staying home for at least 24 hours after those symptoms are gone.

Although nearly 80 percent of the nation’s swine flu deaths have involved people with pre-existing health problems, a 22-year-old Sarasota man who died Thursday had no known medical issues. And he did not put off seeking treatment.

Influenza is always a public health concern, but swine flu spreads quickly and targets people traditionally not at risk for serious illness. A second man who died Thursday was a 31-year-old Polk County resident. On Friday, a 47-year-old Sarasota County man died.

“This seems to be targeting a younger population than usual for flu,” said Susan Smith, a Florida Department of Health spokeswoman.

When the first wave of cases hit in May, the average age of an afflicted Floridian was 16, McDougle said.

Scientists speculate that people exposed to swine flu in the 1970s are immune to the current strain, he said. People born in the 1980s and since have never been exposed and may not see themselves as at risk.

“They’re the healthy, active ones who do a lot of things in groups,” McDougle said.

Hillsborough health officials are watching summer-camp programs with particular concern. While none have shut down, a camp graduation program in Sarasota on Thursday at the Ringling College of Art and Design was canceled because seven teenage campers were being tested for the virus.

The CDC reported nationwide deaths of 263 people from swine flu as of Friday, and the diagnosis of 40,000 cases. In Florida, almost 2,200 cases have resulted in 16 deaths.

Other strains of flu kill 36,000 people in the United States each year.

Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee and Sarasota counties are tracking about 200 active cases, according to the respective health agencies.

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